Demand for automobiles is the source of materials flows that are among the largest known to modern society. This demand also accounts for a significant portion of US greenhouse gas, criteria pollutant, and hazardous air emissions. As new public policies are considered to address these issues, science is currently unable to predict unintended consequences of proposed public policies on materials flows and life cycle environmental emissions. Consequently, the overarching goal of this MUSES program is to establish quantitative relationships between materials flows and policy options. With this planning grant award, we will form a team of expert investigators that will develop an integrated proposal for research that will accomplish the following: 1) establish a rigorous scientific methodology for predicting engineering design responses to a set of policy options based on an understanding of corporate incentives, technology design, and production costs; 2) evaluate market penetration these responses through model-based understanding of consumer preferences; and, 3) quantitatively model the impact of these responses on life-cycle materials flows and environmental emissions. The outcomes will inform the automotive policy development process through objective and quantitative modeling approaches.
The scientific impact of the research will include a clearer understanding of relationships between technology options, policy decisions and life cycle materials flows and emissions. The broader impact will include the development of decision modeling tools through an integrated, systems-based modeling package that will allow decision makers to evaluate and optimize technology and policy decisions with respect to costs, market acceptance, and environmental impacts.
