The objective of this research is to employ a longitudinal, multi-hazard, multi-event study of online communication to model the dynamics of informal information exchange in and immediately following emergency situations. The nearly continuous, informal exchange of information is a characteristic human behavior that has been recently transformed by the widespread adoption of mobile devices (such as "smart-phones") and social media technologies (e.g., micro-blogging services such as Twitter), which allow individuals to reach large numbers of contacts over great distances. Emergency management practitioners recognize the potential to exploit this capacity for disaster alerts and warnings, but acknowledge that relatively little is known about the dynamics of informal online communication in emergencies -- and, in particular, about the ways in which existing streams of information are modified by the introduction of emergency information from both official and unofficial sources. Using automated data collection methods, quantitative information will be collected on both the dynamics of communication content and on the properties of communicants' online networks on an ongoing basis (before, during, and after events), and qualitative information on warnings and alerts, as well as media coverage of hazard events. This project will examine the role of official sources in informal communication, and the emergence of mechanisms by which individuals determine information accuracy and establish trust in a rapidly changing environment, and thereby obtain a predictive model of the online response to extreme events. Through this research, existing theories of rumor and informal communication within an online/hazards context will be extended, formal models for the joint evolution of communication content and network structure in response to hazardous events will be developed, and the impact of social, economic, geographical, and hazard context on informal online communication will be evaluated.
The broader impacts of this research include the development of methods for measuring the impact of official inserts on online communication (net of endogenous and other factors), and the creation of the first cross-hazard, baseline controlled longitudinal data set on informal online communication during emergencies. This research has the potential to fundamentally transform not only the methodology for the comparative study of social dynamics across hazards, but also the understanding of how communication unfolds within the hazards context and the impact of social and economic inequalities (the "digital divide") on a particularly critical dimension of informal social interaction.
The nearly continuous, informal exchange of information — including such mundane activities as gossip, rumor, and casual conversation — is a characteristic human behavior, found across societies and throughout recorded history. While often taken for granted, these natural patterns of information exchange become an important "soft infrastructure" for decentralized resource mobilization and response during emergencies and other extreme events. This capacity of informal communication has been further transformed by the widespread adoption of mobile devices (such as smart-phones) and social media technologies (e.g., microblogging services such as Twitter), which allow individuals to reach much larger numbers of contacts over greater distances than was possible in previous eras. Although the potential to exploit this capacity for emergency warnings, alerts, and response is increasingly recognized by emergency management practitioners, much remains to be learned about the dynamics of informal online communication in emergencies — and, in particular, about the ways in which existing streams of information are modified by the introduction of emergency information from both official and unofficial sources. Our research addresses this gap, employing a longitudinal, multi-hazard, multi-event study of online communication to model the dynamics of informal information exchange in and immediately following emergency situations. Intellectual Merit Within sociology and hazards research, our work is so far unique in its systematic investigation of online conversational microdynamics in large populations over long periods of time using a formal, statistically coherent framework combined with deep dive events and intensive case studies. Our collection of a backbone dataset and multiple targeted case studies has leveraged this approach to allow examination of classic theories of informal communication on a large scale coupled with research on behavioral response to warning messages at the "small" scale. Our work thus contributes to these disciplines both substantively, to our understanding of rumoring and other informal communication in response to extreme events, and methodologically, to our understanding of how such communication can be measured using online data sources. Broader Impacts Our work on the measurement and modeling of informal communication has important implications for researchers in other disciplines for which public opinion and deliberation in response to major events is a concern, and for practitioners in the homeland security and emergency management domains. Areas of focused analysis include a series of case studies investigating message retransmission, research on the dynamics of online communications with and among emergency management organizations, research on quantifying the microstructure of communicative acts (and understanding how these change in a hazards context), collection of data on adoption of Twitter by emergency management organizations, and research on affect during mass shooting events. These studies have direct implications for planning and response over networked terse messaging channels during emergency communication events, the direct application of which has the potential to reduce losses and save lives.
