This research program will implement and test a numerical finite- difference model capable of simulating the generation of tsunamis (seismic sea waves) by submarine earthquakes and the resulting propagation of the waves to and across coastlines in threatened areas. This model evolved from extensive experience with two existing numerical models: SURGE which simulates the generation and propagation of tsunamis onto the continental shelf, and SURGE II, which simulates the propagation of long waves into shallow coastal waters and, if approprlate, onto dry land. The extensive data set obtained during the March l985 tsunami in Chile has been used to test and validate the model. Historical perspective has shown that most tsunamis pose their greatest threat to coastal areas within 5-6 hours travel time from the source. Implementation of this model allows simulations of both historical and potential events to be carried out as a single, coupled simulation. The model will provide a valuable threat-assessment tool in areas close to existing seismic gaps in the Pacific. The principal investigator is recognized for his accomplishments in tsunami research. He has the capability and institutional facilities available to successful complete the research program proposed.
