This research program will investigate the source, progapation path, and basin effects that produced the strong ground motion observed during the Mexican Earthquake of September 19, 1985. This earthquake occurred in the Michoacan "seismic gap," and a high probability exists that a large earthquake will occur in the nearby Guerrero seismic gap within the next decade. Such an event could be as damaging to Mexico City as was the September 19,1985 earthquake. This research program will seek to obtain practically useful estimates of the strong ground motion shaking that would result from this event. Given the high probability of occurrence, there is therefore a good chance that these estimates can be checked against measured data in the near future. Such an estimate, and comparison with measured data, is expected to result in signficant advances in the techniques for estimating seismically generated strong ground motion.
