This action is for continued support of ECE-8408227. The aim is to predict the ground motion at a particular construction site in terms of the earthquakes expected to occur on neighboring faults. The prediction is based upon a knowledge of physical processes occurring in the fault zone, the historical record of earthquakes on the fault, the properties of the lithosphere through which the seismic waves propagate, and the response of the ground at the particular site to the incoming seismic waves. The focus will be on: (1) development of a unified theory for estimating source parameters of a characteristic earthquake from geophysical and geological observations on a fault, (2) further study on the relation between long-term seismicity and the quality factor of the Earth's crust, (3) study of the limit of applicability of the 1-D model for soil amplification and (4) study of the effect of non-linearity on strong ground motion. The PI is internationally recognized for his research in this area. He has the ability and institutional facilities available to complete the research proposed which is expected to yield information which is urgently needed by geotechnical engineers for earthquake hazard mitigation.
