A new, comprehensive method for the analysis of seismic hazard is developed to incorporate features of the earthquake source, the attenuation of seismic waves, and the effects of local geology and soil. The new method, based on a fast probability integration scheme developed in structural reliability, will allow the incorporation of refined models in the hazard analysis. It will also allow proper analysis of model uncertainties and evaluation of sensitivities of the hazard to various models or parameters. Alternative measures of ground motion intensity, including vector representations, will be possible with the new method. A general-purpose computer code with the above capabilities will be developed and will be made available to the engineering community. The research will lead to a rational hazard analysis method which breaks across the interdisciplinary barriers by making use of the expanded seismic data base available and the better understanding of the physical process involved by earthquakes achieved lately.
