9318339 Kavvas The objectives of the project are to develop: a physically-based two dimensional climate model (over zonal and meridional directions)describing the physics of atmosphere-ocean-land interactions; an understanding of the relative importance of various possible drought-causing mechanisms over the United States and the northern hemisphere. Also, to use the model for examining the feed-back processes in the evolution of droughts including anthropogenic termination; and for performing Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the characteristics of initiation, evolution and termination of droughts and to develop the corresponding probability distributions. The results from this work will advance the quality of forcasting the onset, evolution and duration of droughts and may eventually benefit the well being and economic development of people exposed to droughts. ***
