9531997 Chang The Great Hanshin earthquake which struck Kobe, Japan on January 17, 1995 killed over 5,000 residents and caused over $100 billion in losses. The magnitude of this disaster exceeds any experience in the modern history of the U.S. and represents an opportunity to learn lessons relevant to the earthquake threat to this country. This project will investigate selected aspects of economic impact in the Hanshin earthquake in order to develop a methodological framework for estimating the economic impact of a catastrophic urban earthquake in the U.S. The investigation will also involve comparisons with the moderate Northridge and Loma Prieta disasters, accounting for relevant differences between the U.S. and Japan. The project will build on on-going research being carried out by the investigators on the Hanshin earthquake. The project focuses on two issues which may be especially important in extrapolating economic impact from moderate to major urban disasters: nonlinear effects and structural change in the economy. ***
