The research goal under this grant is to develop a probabilistic, decision-based methodology for the design of affordable, environmentally acceptable systems. Affordability is defined as the ratio of benefits derived from a system over the cost of achieving those benefits. The research is characterized by activities in three important areas: modeling techniques that encompass the entire life cycle of a system; procedures for modeling, assessment, and mitigation of a variety of uncertainties (which may vary in time); and algorithms for the identification of key economic and environmental parameters that lead to robust design solutions. These three areas are critical to computing probabilistic estimates of system feasibility and viability early in the design/development cycle. Demonstration and validation of research results will occur via a joint effort with industry, through an application study focused on the combined engine/airframe design of a High Speed Civil Transport aircraft. Such an application contains all the relevant issues addressed in the new design methodology: an emphasis on affordability, significant economic uncertainty, and environmental challenges such as excessive community noise and emissions of oxides of nitrogen. If successful, this research would assist design engineers and decision makers in responding to the new paradigm in design, where affordability and environmental compliance are primary objectives. Designers will benefit from the developed and demonstrated techniques for linking these key objectives to elemental design parameters and associated uncertainties. Further, the proposed methods are applicable in almost any setting in a wide variety of fields. In addition, a plan for integration of the methods developed under this research into a newly formed graduate design curriculum to teach students the fundamentals of probabilistic design and mitigation of uncertainties within the context of affordability is presented. The intent is to better prepare engineering graduates for the challenges which await in the new century.
