The dynamics, evolution and management of many real-world populations take place in environmental conditions that vary unpredictably over time. This proposal aims to develop and apply tools to analyze the growth rate and extinction probability of populations that are subject to disturbances that are correlated over time. In particular, the research will seek reliable qualitative and quantitative insights applicable to a wide range of organisms and environments.
A central element of this proposal is to establish and apply the perspective that understanding and managing variability is an important element of population management policies. As an example, consider the management of water supply to alternative users (farmers, fisheries, power) when precipitation varies significantly over time. The biological effect of water on fish populations depends both on the average level of flow and on the lows and highs of flows across successive years. The tools developed with this research will enable examination of how population growth and persistence respond to policies in which water allocation changes with annual precipitation. These methods can be used to examine in detail the specific case of the Pacific salmon, an important and highly visible example of a managed population that is under considerable pressure.
