Accurate projections of species response to climate change are necessary to develop successful conservation strategies for the next century. This research will examine variation in population growth of American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius) in response among-year climate variation, and use this information to predict the viability of ginseng populations under future climatic conditions. In particular, the principal investigators will examine whether adaptation to local climate limits the ability of ginseng to respond to climate change. A long-term (7 - 10 year), demographic dataset from across ginseng's natural range will be used to detect patterns of population response to climate variation, and form the basis for models that predict future population viability. Field and laboratory experiments will be used to test for local adaptation to climate. If populations of ginseng are adapted to local climate, then the directional temperature increases projected for the next century may negatively affect all populations throughout the range of this economically important plant.
American ginseng is the United States' premier wild-harvested medicinal plant species, generating important supplemental income for Appalachian families. Climate change threatens to negatively impact this valuable natural resource as well as other similar species. Developing models of population viability in response to climate change will ultimately serve as the foundation for effective conservation and management strategies in the context of global warming.
