Long-term data on the abundance of arthropod vectors that transmit important human diseases are necessary to predict risk. Risk of human exposure to Lyme disease is related to the abundance of blacklegged ticks (the vector) that are infected with Borrelia burgdorferi (the pathogen). The objective of this research is to understand the causes of dramatic variation in risk at representative sites in the northeastern U.S.A. Prior research suggests that Lyme disease risk is correlated with prior abundance of white-footed mice (a critical host for ticks and pathogens), and that mouse abundance is correlated with prior abundance of acorns (a crucial food for mice). Tick and mouse populations, and acorn production, are potentially influenced by changing climatic conditions. The proposed research will establish which climatic variables influence tick survival, mouse abundance, and acorn production. It will clarify the nature of the relationships between acorns and mice, and between mice and ticks. The results will facilitate the integration of climate change with forest health to predict risk.
Results of this long-term project are used for K-12 classroom teaching (including a PBS NOVA unit), undergraduate education (independent research projects and material for textbooks in ecology, conservation biology, and mammalogy), and public education (local and regional presentations about Lyme disease risk factors, media coverage in newspapers and magazines). The proposed research has strong practical implications because it allows prediction of times and places of high disease risk.
