The overall goal of the Jornada Basin Long Term Ecological Research Program is to understand and quantify the mechanisms that generate alternative natural and human-dominated states in dryland ecosystems, and to predict future states and their consequences for the provisioning of ecosystem services. Based on long-term databases beginning in 1858, research over the next six years will focus on five types of dynamics: (1) a shift from perennial grasslands to desertified shrublands, (2) a reversal to grassland states, (3) transitions among shrub-dominated states, (4) invasion by non-native grasses, and (5) transitions to human-dominated states. This research combines rigorous hypothesis testing through initiation of new experiments, novel integration of long-term studies to address new questions, forecasts of alternative future landscapes and consequences for ecosystem services under a changing environment, and extension of cross-site and regional studies. Simulation modeling will improve understanding of current patterns and prediction of future dynamics.
Training opportunities will be provided for graduate and undergraduate students at four Hispanic-serving institutions in New Mexico, Arizona, and Texas. A K-12 and teacher-training program will provide inquiry-based curricula, field trips, teacher workshops, and public education events. Research findings will be distributed to scientists, land managers, and educators via workshops, seminars, and an on-line newsletter. International collaborations will occur on five continents (North and South America, Asia, Europe, Australia) to address the global challenge of increasing desertification.
