Aconitum noveboracense is a rare plant that is federally listed as Threatened. This study will examine the way in which its life history, population dynamics and genetic structure interact to influence the viability of the small populations in which it exists. Three to six years of demographic data have been gathered for ten Aconitum populations. These data will be incorporated into a model that simulates population dynamics and determines the probability of long-term survival of each population. The population genetic structure of twelve Aconitum populations will be characterized using ribosomal DNA and random single copy genomic probes. A second model, simulating population viability based upon genetic criteria, will be used to analyze these data. Both models will be analyzed to highlight the factors that are most important in regulating population viability. In addition to providing basic information on population genetic variation, this study will compare the predictions for population viability generated by demographic and genetic models. This approach provides an empirical basis from which to examine the strengths and limitations of existing theoretical models. At the same time, it provides a basis for making management recommendations for Aconitum populations. This combined study of population dynamics and genetics will enhance our understanding of the role each plays in preserving rare species.
