This study will develop, calibrate and test a model of forest dynamics that encompasses a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. The research will consist of an integrated program of computer and mathematical modeling, together with empirical studies of nine forest tree species that are components of the transition oak-northern hardwoods forests. The empirical studies will provide the data necessary to calibrate explicitly spatial models of forest communities that include: (1) competition for light, water and mineral nutrients, (2) dispersal, (3) disturbance and (4) soil and topographic heterogeneity. During the study, models that apply to the landscape level and yet retain fine-scale resolution important to single individuals will be developed. The models will be designed so that they may be tailored to forecast the consequences of energy-related and other anthropogenic perturbations such as acid rain, elevated to CO2, and ultraviolet radiation, and global warming. The principal objective of the work is, generally, to understand the factors controlling forest community dynamics and structure, and, specifically, to identify the ecological processes responsible for observed spatial and temporal patterns across a broad range of scales and determine how these processes become represented in scale-dependent pattern.
