9623598 Clark Disequilibrium of dynamics of boreal permafrost peatlands during transience to a warmer climate. Global general circulation models suggest that the greatest future temperature increases of 4-8 C will occur in boreal and tundra biomes. An understanding of the future dynamics of these systems is important in determining their role as negative or positive feedbacks to the global carbon cycle, especially in peatlands containing permafrost which may undergo dramatic change with climate warming. Permafrost peatlands are a potential example of systems that do not respond in equilibrium with climate. The PIs suggest that both local and regional factors influence the dynamics of boreal permafrost peatland systems and that the transient dynamics of these landscapes will not correspond to climatic warming in an equilibrial fashion due to local constraints serving as negative feedbacks to change. The goal of this study is to identify the relative contributions of regional climatic versus local autogenic processes to the successional dynamics in permafrost peatland landscapes. With this information, spatial cellular automata models will be developed to test the degree of landscape disequilibrium with climate by sequentially adding local feedback responses. The peat accumulation potential of permafrost peatlands versus melted peatlands will be measured to determine carbon source-sink shifts as landscapes change.
