Hydrology plays an important role in shaping the dynamics of malaria transmission in Africa. The hydrologic processes that lead to the formation of water pools near African villages represent a key link between variability in the natural environment and the dynamics of malaria transmission. The long-term goal of the proposed research is to develop credible computational tools that can be used to (1) design intervention technologies based on environmental management of the local hydrology; as well as to (2) predict the impact of climate variability on the hydrology of water pools and the associated malaria transmission. The proposed project represents the first steps toward this goal. In the course of the proposed research, one graduate student will be introduced to this important field of research. This project will contribute to the ongoing international research project on African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis(AMMA).The objective of the proposed project is to improve our understanding of the factors that define the hydrology of water pools in Africa. A new model of the natural environment, with a focus on the hydrology of water pools, will be developed. We shall determine how local environmental conditions lead to the formation of these natural water bodies and hence provide habitats that are suitable for sub-adult mosquitoes; and we shall attempt to predict the response of these pools to seasonal and inter-annual climate variability. A field site in Niger will serve as the focus of this activity. Several important questions will be addressed: What is the role of local environmental conditions rainfall, soil, topography, and vegetation) and microclimatic conditions (defined in terms of radiation, temperature, wind and humidity) in dictating the dynamics of the water pools that serve as habitat for mosquito populations? What is the relative role of local hydrologic conditions, such as location within a watershed and depth to the groundwater table, in shaping the water pools? Can we predict the response of these water pools to seasonal, inter-annual, and longer term climate variability in Africa? What is the impact of land use change on the spatial coverage and persistence of these water pools? A specific set of hypotheses will be studied: (i) A significant fraction of the variation in mosquito abundance between villages can be explained by variation in the location of groundwater table relative to the surface; (ii) The temporal distribution of rain storms is a significant factor in the formation and persistence of the water pools that act as habitat for mosquito.
