The great lakes region of tropical East Africa has been a magnet for human occupation and settlement since the evolution of our species because of conditions favorable to agriculture, an abundance of fish, an apparent surplus of fresh water, relatively tolerable climatic conditions, and an aesthetically pleasing landscape. However the region remains among the most underdeveloped in the world despite these natural advantages and despite the presence of 25% of the world's surface water resources in its great lakes. Human population growth in the region averages 3% per year and is substantially higher near lakeshores, fish populations are plummeting in response to over fishing and environmental stress, lake levels and outflows to Africa's three largest rivers shift dramatically from year to year as a result of a near-but-teetering balance between fresh water input and evaporative loss, ground water supply and quality are deteriorating, soil erosion is depleting soil fertility, and other aspects of environmental degradation, resulting from high dependence on direct utilization of natural resources, are threatening the lake ecosystems, local water supplies, agricultural productivity, and human welfare. Investigators will meet as a team during the coming year to develop an interdisciplinary research plan for water sustainability and climate in the Lake Malawi basin, which on the one hand typifies much of the great lakes region of tropical East Africa, but on the other lies precariously close to the southern Africa rainfall regime, which is predicted to become more arid with future climate change. The team will develop a set of hypotheses in the context of theoretical frameworks that encompass over-arching issues of forcing, response, and feedbacks in the areas of climate, water, and human activity. They plan two meetings: the first in Minnesota where they will address key questions and identify additional information and data that need to be collected in time for a second meeting to be held 3-4 months later in Malawi to formulate a proposal for a WSC Category II project in the following year. While this project will focus on the Malawi basin, the results will be applicable to most of tropical East Africa, where the conditions of climate and society are quite similar. While this planning phase of their research plan does not involve students, their goal is to succeed in developing a funded, five-year research program that will involve American students working with them and their Malawi colleagues in East Africa, as well as creating opportunities for African faculty and students to be involved with all aspects of the research. This will contribute to capacity building in the African scientific community.
Our interdisciplinary team of hydrologists, social scientists, limnologists and climatologists from the U.S. and Malawi met at two workshops, the first at the Large Lakes Observatory in Duluth on 24 - 26 October 2010, and the second at 3 locations in Malawi on 15 – 18 January 2011. The purpose of the first workshop was to have initial discussions regarding water sustainability issues in the Lake Malawi catchment. The second workshop enabled American participants to hear from Malawi government representatives regarding water management issues, to become familiar with the country and its people (for those who had not been to Malawi before), and to further refine the major issues regarding the theme of this initiative. We learned of the "Green Belt Initiative," an ambitious plan for expansion of irrigation in the Lake Malawi basin, promoted by the president of Malawi, which could potentially reduce water input to Lake Malawi by 5 km3/y. This would be sufficient to lower the lake to no outflow every decade or so, with drastic consequence for fisheries, lake tourism, and the country’s main source of electricity, the hydroelectric dams on the outflowing Shire River. Through these workshops and subsequent communication, our team developed a research plan to address key issues of water sustainability and climate in the Lake Malawi basin. This was submitted to NSF in mid October 2011 as a WSC Category 2 proposal. Unfortunately it was declined, but some of the co-PIs are now seeking funding for this project from other sources. Intellectual Merit: Many developing countries in the tropics share prospects of substantial agricultural and economic development as the world tries to feed 9 billion + people by the middle of this century. Despite their tropical locations, many of these countries will encounter water shortages, which will require difficult decisions on allocation to agriculture, cities, hydroelectric power, and the environment. There is pressing need to refine our ability to assess all aspects of the hydrological regime in such regions, which are often remote and data poor. Weather stations are widely spaced in many of these countries and the quality and continuity of their measurements are limited. Hydrological conditions, including the groundwater regime and river discharge, and societal attitudes and capacities for adaptation, are poorly characterized. Large scale infrastructure programs are often seen as necessary remedies, but if these do not consider the impact of climate change and current patterns of utilization, then engineering solutions may bring disappointing results. Our goal is to undertake a comprehensive hydrological study under such limitations, taking advantage of state-of-the-art modeling, satellite remote sensing, and a focused field measurement program of the environment and human dimension, to guide policy makers who face issues of water sustainability against a backdrop of global climate change and intense alteration of the landscape for human purpose. Broader Impact: The issues associated with the irrigation scheme planned in Malawi and its potential impact on one of Africa’s great lakes will undoubtedly arise in many basins throughout the East African Rift Valley in the coming decades. We thus have a unique opportunity to address basic questions regarding the sustainment of water quality and quantity that will have immediate application throughout the East African Great Lakes region, and potentially in other tropical regions of the world as well, as agricultural practice is adjusted to accommodate the pressures of changing climate and growing population.
