9318646 Rundle It has been recognized by the international community that it may be possible, through programs of systematic study, to devise means to reduce and mitigate the occurrence of a variety of devastating natural hazards (see appendix). One of the most promising avenues of approach is to develop the capability to simulate these physical processes in the computer. Many of the recent models are nonlinear in significant ways, including cellular automata-type or fractal growth models, and can thus be analyzed in a framework familiar to workers in complex system theory. Moreover, it is often the case that the occurrence frequency of disaster events generated by the models follow power laws. While recognizing the importance of this new approach, at this time earth scientists do not generally possess the skills needed to develop or analyze these models. Moreover, it is clear that a variety of workers in statistical mechanics, applied mathematics, and other fields have developed significant interest in these nontraditional problems. The development and analysis of simulations for these problems would therefore proceed most expeditiously in an interdisciplinary professional setting such as that provided by the Santa Fe Institute. A workshop be held at SFI to address these issues, and to allow a forum in which earth scientists can interact with physicists and mathematicians developing techniques to simulate and analyze complex systems.
