9423818 Turcotte This research is to combine the mathematical expertise available at the International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, with the evolving physics research in this country on complexity. The Moscow group is a world leader in statistical studies of seismicity. The PI is a leader in the discovery of new approaches to complex physical systems, especially self-organized criticality as applied to regional seismicity. Realistic models for regional seismicity will be developed from the wide range of available slider-block models that exhibit self-organized criticality. These models can be used as test beds for potential statistical approaches. Combining these two approaches should advance our understanding of earthquake mechanics, improve earthquake hazard assessment, and advance earthquake prediction techniques. This research is a component of the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program. *** ??
