The proposed multidisciplinary project will analyze the deterrent and deflective effects of a range of potential defensive investments in the Global Nuclear detection Architecture (GNDA) on adversary behaviors. Using a Stackelberg game-theoretical model in which the defender and adversaries are embedded in a geospatial network where segments and points exert influence on both sets of actors cost-benefit analyses, the project will identify optimal investment and communication strategy equilibria that simultaneously minimize the non-state adversary radiological or nuclear threat (risk, vulnerability and consequence) and implementation costs. The existing models variously assess: a) adversaries? likely interest in, means of acquiring and weaponizing materials, and the success thereof; b) targeting preferences; c) weapon command and control preferences; and d) smuggling route preferences. Additional models under development expressly take into account the impact of future technological and geopolitical developments on adversary RN behavior and will also be integrated into the proposed project. In addition to the likely practical value of this project, it will significantly advance the study of non-state adversary deterrence by exploring the effects and interactions between different types of deterrent strategies. The integration of interdisciplinary theories, game-theoretical insights, and robust real-world empiricism will greatly enhance the fundamental understanding of the dynamic interactions between non-state adversaries and the GNDA. As a result, the project will advance the understanding of deterrence within a geospatial context, the distinctions between deterrence and deflection, the second order effects of deterrent efforts on non-targeted actors, and the potential effects and effectiveness of strategic communication with non-state adversaries. Most importantly, the proposed project will involve undergraduate students and a post-doctoral researcher, working on a multi-university, multi-disciplinary project which integrates rigorous theoretical development with practitioner-oriented outcomes.
