A large earthquake, such as a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake, with potential to trigger a devastating tsunami could destroy infrastructure and electrical power systems in communities along the west coast of the United States. Research is lacking on electrical grid performance in the context of an earthquake disaster. Estimating the performance of the entire western grid under the widespread damage of a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake and the hazards that follow (e.g., tsunami,landslides) is extremely challenging. No single method or tool is adequate to tackle this problem. An interdisciplinary approach combining power system operations and analysis, geotechnics, earthquake engineering, mapping, and geospatial analytics, along with human expertise, is required to understand assumptions and complications of the power flow analysis of such a large electrical system. This project will estimate the total damage and recovery time of a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake, and inform the best avenues for mitigation for the overall short and long term economic benefit of the region. As the total direct and indirect costs of a large earthquake for the west coast soar into the billions of dollars, any estimates of impact and avenues for mitigation for the electrical lifeline will have a significant benefit for millions of residents and businesses. Outcomes of this research will be disseminated through graduate classroom, online professional and continuing education instruction. Project results and updates will also be discussed with industry leaders via presentations to the Cascadia Lifelines Program (CLiP) board, the 2022 IEEE Power and Energy Society general meeting, and the Oregon STEM Hub.
The primary objectives of the proposed research are to understand how CSZ earthquakes will impact the extent, distribution, and duration of the western electrical grid failure as a function of earthquake intensity and possible aftershocks; develop a framework for the identification of critical grid locations and components that will aid decision makers and planners, and also be broadly applicable to any seismic zone in the US; estimate expected initial load loss and load recovery time due to a major CSZ event; explore impacts of Remedial Action Schemes (RAS) on grid performance and recovery. The proposed multidisciplinary research activities to meet these objectives are: (1) creating rules and automation for an augmented large-scale electrical power flow model of the western electrical grid; (2) developing fragility functions and restoration rates for electrical components in the augmented model; and (3) improving understanding of grid performance and critical points for improved resilience via Monte Carlo analyses of hazard levels and grid scenarios.
This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
