9632702 Mazumdar The purpose of the proposed project is to find suitable methods for obtaining the statistical distribution of electric power system production costs by taking into account the major sources of uncertainty that include generator outages, load, and fuel prices. Information on the distributions is important for risk evaluation, fuel inventory planning, model validation, and sensitivity analysis of planning decisions. A distinguishing feature of the project will be explicit modeling of the stochastic processes associated with these generation outages and chronological load. The determination of the expected values of these distributions does not require the consideration of these random processes, but for computation of higher order statistics such as the standard deviation or estimating the entire distribution, this is necessary. Consideration of these processes for estimating the temporal correlations between the amounts of energy production makes the analytical computations difficult and challenging. It is argued in the proposal that this work will maintain its relevance after deregulation and the arrival of the competitive market structure in the operation of electric power companies. ***
