This project will examine the influence of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition on thresholds of vegetation-type conversion caused by invasive annual grasses. Invasive plants have dramatically altered many semiarid ecosystems of the western United States, but N deposition may exacerbate the problem. The conceptual framework for this effort is based on complex systems theory, including modeling non-linear, non-equilibrium dynamics to determine thresholds at which N deposition and fire irreversibly change ecosystems ranging from desert to forest. The impacts of N deposition varies as a function of ecosystem proximity to major N emission sources, meteorology, and soil physical and chemical conditions. N emissions in this region originate primarily from internal combustion engines as nitrate, and secondarily from agriculture as ammonium. This project proposes to identify sources of N deposition, describe atmospheric transport of N, quantify rates of deposition across landscapes, and subsequently determine the N supply rate to vegetation. Biogeochemical, hydrological, fire, and landscape transition models will then be used to show how elevated N and fluctuating precipitation affect grass biomass, the fire cycle, and vegetation change in the different ecosystem types. Methods: The research will have two major components. First, it will describe N deposition to different ecosystems in the southern California air basin. The hydrological, carbon, and nitrogen cycles will be coupled since together they control the movement of N, and interannual variability in vegetation growth. Researchers will examine the relationships between modeled N deposition and vegetation response from 1982 to the present. They will also model N deposition expected in the future as a result of projected urban and agricultural land use changes, comparing possible impacts associated with three urban development scenarios. Second, they will examine vegetation composition along N deposition gradients and resample historic vegetation plots to determine changes in plant diversity, and use remote sensing to detect large-scale vegetation changes. Researchers will measure N inputs, turnover, and losses in soils, and conduct fertilization experiments in desert, forest, and shrubland ecosystems to determine thresholds of change under increased N loading. Vegetation change will be modeled using fire and landscape transition models. These results will be coupled with the atmospheric model to show the effect on vegetation for several N deposition scenarios in 2018. Intellectual Merit: This research will have relevance far beyond southern California since the processes of urbanization and N deposition are occurring around the world, and to a range of ecosystems from arid to mesic. This effort will be one of the few to couple biogeochemical and landscape transition models to show how N deposition, variation in precipitation, and exotic invasions promote non-linear changes in different ecosystem types. The research will promote our understanding of complexity theory by comparing four ecosystem types, each responding with its own threshold and emergent properties to N deposition. Broader Impacts: The research will examine complex dynamics of landscapes impacted by emissions caused by changing human demographics and population growth. The controls on plant invasions and their further impacts are not well known, so the results of this research will have implications for regional planning efforts and for emissions regulations. The educational and outreach components of the project include working with local programs to educate the public and school children about N deposition, organizing a regional conference on N deposition for land managers, legislators, and scientists, and working with federal, state, and local agencies on Habitat Conservation Planning efforts for sensitive species subject to air pollution and invasive species. The project will provide research opportunities for a diverse student population, which will be augmented by advanced seminar courses led by an interdisciplinary research team.
