This proposal supports a project development visit by Dr. Paul Switzer, Stanford University to develop a familiarity with methods and programs of the Soviet team headed by Professor Keilis-Borok, International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow, Russia. They share a common goal of potential cooperative research in earthquake prediction and statistical modelling and analysis. They anticipate a technical report describing for U.S. readers the algorithm "M8" as it was used to obtain the claimed prediction of the Loma Prieta event. This report will include a self- contained description of the features of the seismic record used and an account of all the parameters fitted. The understanding obtained in this effort will provide the basis for future efforts to adapt modern statistical methods to emperical earthquake prediction and validation. This project fulfills the program objective of advancing scientific knowledge by enabling leading researchers in the United States and the U.S.S.R. to combine complementary efforts and capabilities in areas of strong mutual interest and competence in the field of basic scientific research on the basis of equality, reciptocity, and mutuality of benefit.//
