This award is for the support of a joint project by Dr. Allan R. Robinson, Division of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University and Dr. Sukru Besiktepe, Institute of Marine Sciences at Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey. The project is to develop an operational nowcasting and forecasting capability of physical and biogeochemical variabilities of the Black Sea and to demonstrate the real-time forecast at sea. They plan to set up the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS) as a "Black Sea Ocean Prediction System" (BOPS) and methodically follow procedures described by Robinson (1966) and by Lozano (1996). The research plan includes the following tasks: create future model for biogeochemical variables (NO3, NH4, Detritus, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton), design ecosystem model representing lower trophic level of pelagic ecosystem, validate and calibrate ecosystem model using 1-d model of the Black Sea, couple the biochemical model with the physical model developed in previous studies, initialize and validate coupled physical-biochemical model, and prepare a system for real-time simulations, and perform on board forecasting of physical and biochemical variables.
Scope: This award will support a joint project by two scientists who have complementary capabilities and facilities to study the important topic of the environmental monitoring of the Black Sea. The problem of coupling physical oceanographic data with biogeochemical oceanographic data is crucial for the success of a forecasting model and will be dealt with in this cooperative project. The US side has special models for physical oceanography phenomena, while the Turkish side has expertise in the Black Sea physical and environmental conditions and access to recent and current data. The project fits well within the objectives of the Division of International Programs.
