A persistent challenge for ecology is to connect a mechanistic understanding of population dynamics with the generation of large-scale aggregate patterns of community structure, such as species-abundance and species-area relationships. Hubbell's Neutral Theory of Biodiversity has shown promise in its ability to do this in both marine and non-marine systems. If the theory is correct, then a radical shift is needed in the perspective of how communities are organized, with minimal role for species differences (niche variation) and an emphasis on metacommunity dynamics, dispersal/recruitment control, and the interplay of speciation and extinction dynamics. Past evaluations of the theory have depended on asking whether the neutral theory can fit aggregate patterns, such as species-abundance distributions. This approach is relatively weak, involving tuning of two critical model parameters. This project will provide a strong test of the theory in a rocky intertidal community by reformulating the theory to make it more empirically accessible, extending a dataset on the transition dynamics of space use, parameterizing the model with this dataset, and then using several species deletion experiments to provide an independent test of the theory. The experimental approach will also relax several key assumptions of the neutral theory, including no recruitment limitation or variation and differences in species and their interactions, and explore the consequences of these assumptions. Aside from providing a strong test of an important synthetic theory, the research will expand knowledge of metacommunity dynamics, which are particularly relevant for understanding marine systems with oceanic transport, and will provide empirical information on the consequences of chronic species deletion in nearshore environments. Broader Impacts. This project will train undergraduate, graduate, and post-Ph.D. scientists at the interface of quantitative and field-based ecology, will involve interaction with tribal natural resource managers, and will facilitate access to a unique long-term multi-species dataset for probing transition-based approaches to environmental science that may provide some predictive insight into the consequences of biodiversity loss.
