Dr. Botsford and collaborators will model and analyze the dynamic effects of spatially and temporally varying physical oceanographic conditions on spatially distributed, meroplanktonic marine populations with age or size structure and density- dependent recruitment. They will examine the effects of both: (1) large scale physical forcing on transport and survival between sub-populations during the planktonic larval stage, and (2) small scale physical forcing on life history rates in local sub-populations. Population behavior will be characterized in terms of persistence, stability, sensitivity to environmental variability, and spatial synchrony. These investigators will use their models and the results of their analyses to project changes in these populations due to projected changes in global climate. As specific examples for which to make these projections, they will focus on the Dungeness crab (Cancer magister) and the feeding interaction between sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus spp.) and macroalgae (Nereocystis leutkeana, Macrocystis pyrifera) in the California Current System. For these systems they will model larval transport based on idealized flows and small scale benthic flows computed from wave energy. Potential future changes in the physical environment will include changes in the level of upwelling and the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events.
