This project has the potential to significantly improve the efficacy of water forecasting, a crucial need as water availability becomes increasingly inconsistent due to growing urbanization, the impacts of climate variability and other factors. The project studies the intersection of human, climate, water, agriculture, and energy systems in the Blue Nile Basin (BNB) of Ethiopia. The main objective of the project is to study and improve decision making under uncertainty. The project interweaves social science, geosciences and engineering research to create new models for water forecasting, then uses these models to understand the political-institutional constraints that affect how communities and decision-makers consider and use scientific information. Since decision-makers globally are faced with the challenge of using data and models that are never completely certain, an understanding of how political-institutional constraints impact use of scientific data will have global ramifications. Performing this research in Ethiopia is especially valuable since Ethiopia's inter-annual variability in local precipitation is one of the highest globally and Ethiopia's socio-political challenges in water management are mirrored in many other developing countries. Therefore, improved water modeling methods developed for the BNB have the potential to be valuable globally, and improved understanding of the political and institutional impacts on water management in the BNB can be applied to other environments with a potentially transformational impact around the globe.
This project will develop hydro-climatic forecasts from data-enhanced models and incorporate social science data that will improve the predictability of sub-basin hydro-agricultural and water management processes in the BNB. A three-stage longitudinal design captures the changing links between new scientific information, political-institutional dynamics, and water, agricultural and energy activities. The project uses a comparative design method to harness and understand variation in both human and natural systems, investigating iteratively how each aspect of the coupled system influences human security in vulnerable hydro-climatic environments. The research proposed provides a novel mechanism to test the traditional understanding of "pure" science against a political-institutional model that acknowledges the role of social factors in the use of scientific information. The research will provide a better understanding of how people respond to scientific uncertainty with implications well beyond Ethiopia and the Blue Nile Basin. The project will integrate research, education and outreach, bringing people and resources together across disciplinary, cultural and geographical boundaries. Key likely benefits include: developing a practical roadmap for developing and using water forecasting in low income communities; training a new cadre of US students capable of interdisciplinary and international work on water and human security, and providing e-learning and outreach that will carry this training beyond the students participating in this project; and global public outreach to share the results of this project with scientists as well as many other stakeholders interested in understanding and managing water resources. The research effort aligns with NSF's emerging focus on food, energy, and water systems, and the results of this project are likely to benefit future efforts to understand the food, energy, and water nexus.
This award is co-funded by the Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences' Office of Multidisciplinary Activities.
