Funds are provided for: (1) construction of an archive to facilitate access to the arctic output of the current set of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-designated global model simulations, (2) implementation of a set of user-driven modules intended to provide insight into the model simulations and their utility; and (3) use of the IPCC model output to relate variations in the occurrence of extreme events to changes of climatic means in the Arctic. The IPCC output will consist of simulations from a suite of 12-15 models run using several different forcing scenarios. A core archive consisting of monthly averaged output from each model will be constructed. The archive will include ensemble averages of selected scenario runs from certain models, as well. A subset of variables will be archived on a daily basis. Education and outreach modules will be designed with several objectives: (1) enhancement of users' awareness of the state of the art of climate modeling of the Arctic, and (2) visual appeal intended to engage users and stimulate their interest in arctic climate change. The study of extreme events will include statistical analyses of changes of extremes in the context of changing means and changing variances in both observational data and model output.
