Funds are provided for climate modeling to be performed at an unprecedented spatial scale. This will allow the PIs to address issues central to the study of permafrost. These include the accurate delineation of different zones of permafrost, active layer depth, and seasonality at scales of societal interest. The project will incorporate existing near-surface weather, climate, and permafrost observations, and supplement these with new targeted measurements at locations where climate change is presently taking place, e.g. in the discontinuous permafrost zone. The project's main objectives are: Provision of regional climate simulations for the present and future at unprecedented spatial resolution for two very distinct areas of permafrost - western Greenland (a coastal/maritime permafrost regime) and northern Alaska (a continental interior permafrost regime) - using a thoroughly validated regional climate model for the Arctic;Establishment of a series of permafrost and climate monitoring sites representative of the range of permafrost types encountered near the permafrost margin of the two regions; Implementation of a state-of-the art permafrost model to be calibrated against field measurements and to be driven by the output of the regional climate model;Development of a quantitative assessment of how permafrost responds to these climate change simulations using state-of-the-art permafrost models, which will permit mapping of the permafrost conditions for the present and future;Development of an evaluation of the implications of this assessment in the context of planning, as well as mitigation and adaptation to climate change, in Greenland and Alaska; and Demonstration of the added value of this high-resolution modeling approach for Greenland and Alaska, given the significant differences in geography, climatology and infrastructure.
The climate and permafrost modeling are at the frontier of their respective disciplines. The synergies anticipated from this interdisciplinary study will inform civil engineers, planners, and managers about the present sensitivity of permafrost to climate stress, produce risk maps for specific regions, and suggest how the permafrost within these regions might change under different scenarios of climate variability.
