A data analysis and modeling project seeks to quantify the changes acting on Antarctic climate over the coming century attributable to the recovery of stratospheric ozone. Anticipated as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol to reduce ozone depleting halocarbon emissions, the seasonal polar ozone holes are now showing signs of recovery. The current lack of a discernable global warming effect on much of the East Antarctic (EA) is thought to stem from stratospheric cooling in part brought about by successive annual ozone depletion events. A steepening of the polar vortex due to stratospheric cooling is accompanied by a strengthening of the westerly winds that circle the continent, which in turn lessens the meridional heat transfer from a warming Southern Hemisphere. As this stratospheric cooling is removed, a stronger warming of the EA is possible. A range of current global climate model outputs will be examined as to their ability to reproduce recent Antarctic climate conditions. Whether these can be reliably attributed to a single factor such as ozone or other (well mixed) greenhouse gases may enable future Antarctic climate responses to be better estimated. Antarctic climate variability, especially with respect to surficial melt at the coastal margins has important potential impacts on ice sheet mass balance and global sea-level rise in the coming century.
