ABSTRACT OPP-9614537 OPP-9614557 NELSON, FREDERICK BARRY, ROGER STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO AT ALBANY This research project uses Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to derive climatic conditions in the permafrost region of the Arctic during predicted warmer climatic conditions. The model output for a warmer climate scenario will be used to predict the areas where permafrost could thaw and cause great disruption to human populations. The disruption would greatly affect engineering practices, coastal erosion, as well as ecological changes that could affect subsistence economies. The results of this study will provide a framework for assessing potential impacts on the infrastructure and social culture of areas in the Arctic where global climate changes resulting from natural or human activities have been predicted. The study will incorporate data from the Russian Arctic that has not been available previously.
