This goal of this project is to provide new empirical knowledge about how people form expectations about uncertain events that affect their lives, and how people process and learn from new information. We will record individual's beliefs about the uncertainty they face, and the resulting choices that are made, in a high-stress and high stakes decision environment. Test subjects are commercial halibut fishermen who make repeated trips searching for their quarry in the Gulf of Alaska. This natural experiment presents a unique opportunity to study the decision processes of experienced individuals who have selected a profession that rewards the ability to locate fish.
The data will be used to test competing theories of decision making, learning and search under uncertainty, and to identify, and quantify the effects of biased belief formation, if found. The results are expected to make important contributions to the fields of behavioral psychology and behavioral economics. In addition to better understanding how individuals form beliefs and make repeated choices under uncertainty, the data will be used to determine whether biased judgment is prevalent among experienced, in fact professional, decision makers. We will document and quantify the effects of judgment bias on the economic performance of fishermen in our sample, and measure the influence of social, cultural and ethnic background on choice under uncertainty. By documenting dynamic belief formation, learning, and actual choice in the field this research will provide an empirical foundation to assess traditional and emerging theories of choice under uncertainty.
