Objectives and Intellectual Merit: This study examines the political consequences of the Hurricane Katrina disaster. With estimates of disaster relief and rebuilding costs mounting to over $200 billion, only strong and sustained public support for disaster victims and the government will provide the necessary political capital to ensure funds needed for the restoration effort. However, in the aftermath of the hurricane, Americans report diminished trust in government, especially in the ability of government to deal with natural disasters and possible future terrorism. And there is increasing debate about the best way for the government to pay for reconstruction efforts.
Ultimately, Katrina's long-term political consequences will depend to a large degree on the underpinnings of public reactions to the disaster and its victims, views which are currently far from uniform. Some Americans continue to trust the government while others do not. Some wish to see foreign and domestic spending reduced while others want to postpone tax cuts. Some view race and class as defining factors in the human and social disaster in New Orleans, others reject such reasoning.
The investigators focus specifically on Americans' beliefs about race as a possible defining factor in understanding public reactions to the government's obligation to disaster victims and its performance in handling relief efforts. A great deal of research has shown that divergent beliefs about race and the origins of racial inequities are a powerful source of division among Americans concerning government social welfare policy, anti-poverty programs, and an array of government assistance programs very generally. News media coverage of the Katrina disaster has made clear that poor, African-Americans dominated the ranks of those initially left behind in New Orleans.
To more fully assess the possibly divisive role of racial attitudes in conditioning responses to government relief efforts in response to Katrina, the researchers extend an ongoing NSF-funded research project into Americans' racial attitudes. Specifically, they re-interview respondents included in the American Racial Opinion Survey (AROS). The survey is based on a national telephone sample conducted initially in late 2003 and early 2004, funded by the National Science Foundation (SES-030318800). The first wave of the interview was conducted with 1,583 individuals. They then attempted re-interviews with all whites in the study (N=1,229) in early 2004 (February till June), and obtained completed interviews with 868 non-Hispanic, non-Asian whites. The second wave interview focused exclusively on whites in order to obtain very detailed assessment of their racial attitudes. The two interviews provide a detailed understanding of the respondents' ideological values, views of government, and, most importantly, a number of measures of their racial attitudes and beliefs. In the new interviews they will focus on responses to the Katrina disaster: attitudes toward the victims, assessments of the government's performance, and support for policies to assist the victims and rebuild New Orleans. The research design makes possible a more subtle exploration of the political effects of racial attitudes than in the typical cross-sectional public opinion survey. As a consequence, the researchers are well positioned to assess both overt and more subtle political effects of racial attitudes in accounting for American responses to the disaster.
Broader Impact: From a broader perspective, this research will extend policy makers' understanding of how the public responds to disasters and government efforts to deal with such events. The study will also provide evidence on the extent to which victims' race and class shapes public support for government efforts to respond to various kinds of disasters. Efforts to rebuild New Orleans and assist its residents may be seriously undermined by any negative reactions to the hurricane's predominantly poor and black victims. Views of the hurricane's victims may also affect the degree to which trust in government has been undermined by the relief effort in New Orleans. A number of polls have reported some mistrust in government's future ability to handle disasters in the aftermath of the hurricane. The extent to which any given disaster undermines faith in government may also depend on perceptions of the class and racial background of affected citizens.
