Following the collapse of communism, rulers in Eastern Europe and the former USSR changed the rules governing elections as one of many political reforms in the transition to democracy. These political leaders implemented the rules with particular expectations as to how voters would respond to the new election environment. However, the effect of reform on the political system led to unexpected outcomes, handing electoral defeat of many leaders from the old regime. Scholars have developed explanations for when, why, and how election reform occurs, but this research generally focuses on the role of political leaders in the process and overlooks the reaction of voters to the new voting arrangements. It is difficult to capture voter reactions to new election environments due to the high level of uncertainty the reform introduces to the political system. This project will demonstrate how voters respond to new election rules through the development of a theory of voter learning. The theory will be tested using a multiple methods approach. The first part of the project will conduct a computer laboratory experiment with populations from universities in three countries with different election reform histories: France, Germany, and Hungary. The experimental design is a fictitious election environment populated with five candidates contesting an election, and the treatment is exposure to voting rules found in either the United States or France. After a series of elections, the "shock" of a new election rule is introduced to the voters, and the subsequent behavior of the voters is captured. The second part of the project will use standard statistical techniques to analyze real-world data in the form of post-election surveys from the years prior to and following election reform in France, Germany and Hungary.
This project will provide several scientific advancements. First, it develops an interdisciplinary theory of learning that bridges research in behavioral economics with the expectations from political science in regards to voter behavior and elections. Second, the project tests the theory by using a combination of experimental techniques and survey data. The combination of both experimental and non-experimental methods allows for greater insight into the findings and conclusions than would be possible using only one method. Third, the project will advance scientific knowledge by the provision to the public of the experimental protocol, software coding instructions, surveys, and both the experiment and non-experimental data on a website maintained by the researcher. Finally, this project will have important public policy ramifications, especially with reality of political leaders in both new and old democracies manipulating election rules. The conclusions of this project will advance the understanding of what happens to voters following a change in their experience at the ballot box. The information gathered from such research will better inform political elites as to the consequences of tampering with voting arrangements. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.
