There are few things more important than the ability to explain and predict dramatic changes in foreign policy. Unfortunately, existing theories of international relations are much better at explaining consistency in behavior rather than predicting change. The primary reason is that scholars have tended to focus on the international system as the main source of foreign policy. The goal of this project is to develop and evaluate a theory of domestic political influences on change in foreign policy.
Foreign policy is driven not only by international factors but also by domestic political competition. Domestic groups have different interests, preferences, and goals, and these differences extend to foreign policy. When leaders who depend on the support of different groups than their predecessors assume power, the opportunity for domestically motivated policy change arises (e.g. Fulgencia Battista to Fidel Castro in Cuba or George H.W. Bush to Bill Clinton in the United States). This research will collect data on leadership transitions in all countries from 1919-2008. The goal is to differentiate domestic leadership transitions that bring to power leaders who represent different societal groups than their predecessors from those who rely on essentially the same groups for support. These data will be used to examine the effect of leadership transitions in states with varying domestic political rules (democracies versus non-democracies and systems with many or fewer actors with influence over political outcomes) and in areas where foreign policy commitments are highly formal and legal (alliance commitments, peace treaties, and IMF commitments) and areas of expressive foreign policy (UN voting).
From a policy perspective, this research will have three important impacts: First, it will help policymakers to foresee circumstances that are likely to lead to abrupt changes in foreign policy in other countries. Second, it will further elucidate the costs and benefits of democratization for international relations by evaluating claims that democracies exhibit greater consistency in foreign policy behavior and thus an enhanced ability to establish long term international cooperation. It will also speak to the desirability of adopting regime change as a foreign policy goal. Third, it will provide evidence regarding the efficacy of international law.
