As additional governments are acknowledging the existence of climate change, many are systematically evaluating policy actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Simultaneously, various groups like utilities, private-sector firms, and state and local governments are estimating the potential costs related to mitigation, adaption, or damage and the potential benefits of climate change and alternative policies. All of these decisions collectively will have economic impacts measuring into the trillions of dollars. Decisions of such magnitude should be based on the best possible analysis tools. Such tools inevitably must be based on computational models because of the complexity of the system of systems that need to be analyzed to project possible future states, identify potential unexpected consequences, and understand sensitivity to uncertainty. This interdisciplinary collaborative group will develop and disseminate tools to help individuals and organizations make more informed decisions relating both to short-term economic dislocations induced by climate policies and to long-term consequences of climate change. The group's primary product will be CIM-EARTH, a powerful and flexible framework of model components that can be used to help answer questions across a wide range of policy analyses. At the core of the CIM-EARTH framework will be an open-source, dynamic, general equilibrium model. The architecture of this framework will leverage high-performance computing and numerical methods that enable the evaluation of far more detailed models than existing code. The group will focus on enhanced representation of key energy producing and consuming sectors and on dynamic processes, such as capital investment and technology development. Another key component of the group's work will be the characterization of multiple types of uncertainty inherent in any complex system. CIM-EARTH will be developed in the newly created Center for Robust Decision Making on Climate and Energy Policy (DMCEP), which will be staffed by experts in economics, energy technologies, energy systems, climate modeling, and computational science who represent multiple institutions and countries.
Robust decision-making research is critical if policymakers are to fully understand the factors to be weighed in policy design and choice. While there are existing models that provide some guidance, they have shortcomings that limit their practical utility. This group will produce next-generation computational models for analyzing complex system of systems, with specific emphasis placed on advances in model components that represent economic systems. CIM-EARTH is expected to create a new standard for open-source modeling that encourages the participation of a community users and contributors. In addition, by incorporating recent advances in computer architecture, numerical methods, and economic modeling, CIM-EARTH will enhance methodologies that will be of tremendous value to other computational models with similar complexity. This collaborative group project is supported by the NSF Directorate for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences through its Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) competition.
