The project explores the impact of the state on security and citizen welfare. Conventional expectations of state-building suggest that regions controlled by formal authorities will provide enhanced security and citizen welfare. However, it is difficult to test this belief with appropriate levels of control; regions controlled by formal authorities are often systematically different than those which are not. This proposal will conduct a representative survey following the withdarwal of Al Shabaab in Mogadishu, Somalia. Mogadishu is now divided among areas controlled by formally recognized state authorities and local power-brokers. By comparing these two types of areas which are similar on many other dimensions, the survey will allow reseachers to isolate the effect of formal authority on security and citizen welfare. The proposal also incorporates communications technology in a novel manner, potentially advancing methods of conducting surveys in hard-to-reach areas of the world. The findings should have implications not only for the scholarly community, but could inform non-governmental organizations and policymakers about how to more efficiently provide assistance to conflict-prone areas.
The resolution of this question willcontribute to our understanding of the origins and effects of state power. In addition, the project will assess how clan- and kinship- ties contribute to security and welfare within areas outside of state control. The project also features important broader impacts. Most notably, the survey incorporates technological innovations to gather survey responses that are novel and potentially transformative. Satellite imagery will be used to develop the sampling frame. Because of recent conflict in the region, demographic data are incomplete. The use of satellite imagery allows the investigators to work around this challenge. Enumerators will collect, encrypt, and transmit data using mobile phones allowing investigators to gain immediate access to data and to enhance the security of the data collection enterprise. This approach could be applied to other conflict zones, providing the scholarly community opportunities to conduct research in previously inaccessible areas. The data produced by the project will be of immediate use to the NGO and policy-making communities. Further, the PI's incorporation of the US-based and local Somali communities provides opportunities for training of an underserved group.
National Science Foundation grant SES-1216070 funded the first representative survey of Mogadishu's population in 25 years. Fieldwork was conducted in late March 2012. The survey estimates the population of Mogadishu at 1.1 million people (±23%). This is a far lower number than the 2.5 million figure regularly referenced by policy planners. Conducting a representative, population-based survey requires reliable data on how the population is distributed throughout the survey area. Such data were not readily available for Mogadishu before our work began. We used a commercial satellite photograph of the city of Mogadishu to create the sampling frame with habitable structures coded pixel by pixel. The enumeration of the survey used smartphone technology, pre-loaded with maps to guide the survey team from location to location. The survey instrument was purposely designed to not collect data that could be used to identify individuals or clans. Challenges related to lack of basic security were resolved through the systematic development of local contacts through the Somali diaspora in San Diego, the flexible deployment of staff, and the use of mobile technology. Successful project implementation provides proof-of-concept for analogous data collection projects in challenging environments. The insurgent group Al-Shabaab had unexpectedly withdrawn from the city on August 6, 2011, triggering a scramble for territory among various non-state authorities (who we call "warlords" without pejorative connotation) as well as government forces. As a result, at the time that the survey was conducted, Mogadishu was only partially controlled by the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), which provided us permission to conduct the fieldwork. Preliminary analysis of survey data confirms that welfare outcomes – and self-reported willingness to volunteer sensitive clan data on a future survey – varied for Somali civilians living in "state-incorporated" and "unincorporated" parts of the city in March 2012. Spatial analysis of nonresponse patterns in the data, discussion of the effects of clan homogeneity on welfare, and panel data from a follow-up telephone survey will be presented at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association.
