This project seeks to explain when and why the Chinese government censors the Internet. Existing research at first glance appears to have a ready answer: the government deletes text or images that contribute to street or other forms of protest that either a) threaten social stability, or b) undermine government credibility. Yet it is argued that the above theory about protest activity cannot explain some crisis situations in which government authorities relaxed censorship. Instead, this project posits that Chinese leaders, during at least some breaking incidents, employ a more nuanced strategy when responding to the rapid proliferation of protest-related content. The investigator theorizes that in issue areas, and in moments where Chinese leaders' interests in promoting reforms (on the environment, corruption, and other key issues) align with those of key citizen groups, leaders deliberately loosen control over online media. They do so in order to demonstrate, in high-profile online space, that they are accountable to citizen demands in the above areas. Leaders, moreover, are sometimes willing to do so even at the risk of allowing online speech to facilitate street protests or other collective actions.
This project serves as counterpoint to the idea that authoritarian governments' sole concern with the Internet is in preventing dissenters from using it to challenge the state. While authoritarian leaders indeed fear the Internet's potential to empower social forces that might threaten their hold on power, regimes with more resources and sophistication, like China, also see an opportunity to use social media to forge new connections with middle-class (online) citizens who do not trust the government, and who no longer believe in Communism or other legitimating ideologies. The theory proposed here, if true, would help answer a central puzzle in political science over the past twenty years - why do some authoritarian regimes remain strong, despite the historical collapse of many others that underwent rapid development?
The intellectual merits of the project are associated with the research design. To test this question, the project mixes quantitative and qualitative research methods. It takes an innovative approach to measuring both censorship, and what citizens are saying online by statistically analyzing raw social media data - especially text, and using software programs to group such text by sentiments expressed. The project also involves interviews with four groups in China - journalists, Internet professionals, bloggers, and government officials, who each deal with censorship.
This research concerns policymakers and the general public, in addition to political scientists. The China policy community in Washington is currently grappling with whether the United States should seek to engage China, or contain its rise. China's external behavior, in turn, cannot be understood apart from the domestic sources of Chinese Communist Party stability. Therefore, understanding how the government manages the Internet is vital to crafting an effective China policy. Beyond policy, many U.S. citizens are curious to understand how Chinese citizens interact with their leaders in a censored information environment, as such questions touch deeply on American values of free speech and representative government. Finally, while the project focuses on China, it has implications for two similar authoritarian states - Russia, and Iran - who censor the Internet and whose domestic stability is of vital interest to the United States.
