A century ago, the writer H.G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write. This day has come. A growing body of research in the decision sciences has shown that statistical numeracy (i.e., the ability to understand probabilistic information) is strongly related to risk literacy (i.e., the ability to accurately interpret and make good decisions based on information about risk). In order to model and improve these crucial decision making skills we need a better understanding of underlying cognitive mechanisms and we need more efficient assessment and training technologies. This project maps cognitive processes and individual differences (e.g., intelligence, numeracy, anxiety, personality) linking numeracy and risk literacy across diverse populations (e.g., varying in ages, cultures, education levels) and wide-ranging decisions (e.g., medical, financial, environmental, political). Psychometric and process-tracing experiments serve as a basis for an integrated cognitive model of risk literacy and its relationship to numeracy. In turn, the project develops new numeracy and risk literacy tests and tutoring tools, improving our ability to predict risk comprehension and to avoid misunderstanding. The risk literacy norms developed in the project help in estimating the generalizability of basic laboratory findings and in informing the design of decision support technologies (e.g., risk communication, intelligent tutors).
Professionals, policy makers, and the public (e.g., for loans, diets, surgeries, investments, safety, energy) all routinely use statistical information about risk to inform their decisions. Related mathematical skills are among the most influential educational factors contributing to economic prosperity in industrialized countries. Unfortunately, many people are not sufficiently numerate or risk literate and so they may not make the most informed decisions. In accord with primary goals of the US public education policy, this project produces new knowledge to improve our understanding of numeracy and the mechanisms. This project supports students and researchers who are committed to theoretically grounded research on risk literacy and its applications, including the creation of free online educational tools for use in high schools, colleges, businesses, hospitals, and by the general public. These and other outreach efforts increase awareness of numeracy and risk literacy, and the biases they inoculate against. These efforts also coordinate worldwide research and widen the impact of www.RiskLiteracy.org, thereby improving access to evidence-based resources for students, scientists, policy makers, and people around the world.
