Job opportunities have long been recognized as playing a crucial role in a wide range of important academic and policy issues. However, it is not clear what impact the continuing shift from a manufacturing to a service economy has had on the number and type of job opportunities that the economy has generated in recent years, and on the changing ability of various segments of the population to successfully compete for these opportunities. Has the declining need for low- skilled labor generated the growth of an underclass? What are the blue-collar opportunities for middle income jobs? How have shifts in the economy affected the efforts by women and minorities to reduce the occupation and wage differentials they experience? This research examines the implications of changes in the nation's occupations and industries by examining the job opportunities that arose as a consequence of these changes. The project will obtain estimates of the number of job opportunities that arose in each year from 1968 to 1984, and will examine how trends in job opportunities over these years have contributed to the changing occupational status of important sub-populations (including women, minorities, and workers in traditionally blue-collar manufacturing jobs). The study will draw on data from the Current Population Survey to estimate the total number of opportunities generated during each year, and will distinguish these job opportunities by industry and occupation. This will permit a description of trends in job opportunities by occupation from 1968 to 1984, with particular attention to questions of how job opportunities are changing. The principal investigator will also develop new statistical models of the influence of economic opportunities on the likelihood that workers will move from one job strata to another. The project in its entirety should considerably advance our knowledge of the job opportunities created in the past two decades and of ways in which changing opportunities have affected the labor market experiences of important segments of the population. It should also improve our understanding of the career trajectories of workers with various skills and characteristics who are confronted with a changing labor market.
