Individuals' decision to save depends not only on calculations of the expected return from investment, but on implicit or explicit calculations that they will be able to receive the return. Expectations of the probability of nuclear war are a relevant, though usually neglected, element of those calculations: if individuals think a war likely, they should be less likely to save either for retirement or to leave a bequest. As compared with virtually all other nations where survey research has occurred, Americans have long had exceptionally high expectations of nuclear war. They also have a personal savings rate among the lowest of industrialized countries. Previous research - - systematically comparing across countries, countries over time, and examination of individual responses to survey questions - - supports, but not conclusively, the hypothesis that the rate of individual savings is in fact depressed by fear of war, as a model of rational decision- making would suggest. To date, no survey instrument has been designed specifically to test the hypothesis rigorously. In this investigation the researchers design and administer such a survey, to analyze the results in conjunction with cross-national and cross- temporal data, and to discuss the economic and political implications.
