This project addresses causes of urban homicide rates. The PI will draw hypotheses from four competing theoretical perspec- tives: (1) Subculture of violence, the idea that areas with high homicide rates are characterized by a higher expected (or tolera- ted) level of violence; (2) Socioeconomic, the idea that violence is a consequence of material deprivation, such as homicides connected with robbery; (3) Punishment and deterrence, the idea that homicide rates rise and fall with changes in certainty and severity of punishment; (4) Life patterns, a more complex idea involving motivation, opportunities, and lack of effective guardians such as police. Each theory has strong proponents, but data seldom have been applied to compare the predictive success of each. Part of the reason for the lack of empirical verifica- tion has been the difficulty of obtaining longitudinal data. This project uses matched areas, with a 30-year time span, to estimate a model incorporating hypotheses from all four theories. The results should permit assessment of contribution of the factors specified in each theory, and understanding conditions under which each theoretical process is most likely to appear.
