Recent large-scale accidents such as the Chernobyl nuclear plant radiation release and the Valdez oil spill have underscored the importance of studying how we do and should deal with the prospect of catastrophes in conditions of scientific uncertainty. In that light, contingency planning and prevention measures require investigation. This research project focuses on contingency planning in organizations. It seeks to understand decision making processes of organizations facing the prospect of technological catastrophes for which there are no control measures. A guiding insight is that as organizations attempt to rationalize uncertainties and plan for the unknown, they channel and define societal values. The investigator will proceed by examining two cases, contingency plans for major oil spills and evacuation plans for civilian nuclear power plants, through intensive interviews and archival investigation. Building upon previous work from several disciplines, the research should shed light on how some values are promoted and some are suppressed in the decision making, how expertise is constituted in the process, and consequences for society of organizational planning. Yielding a fuller understanding of decision procedures regarding extremely difficult problems, the research should be useful to policy makers and experts who must plan for low probability, high consequence events in conditions of great uncertainty. The book and articles to be produced by the project should interest these audiences, as well as scholars in relevant fields. The principal investigator is highly qualified; the institutional resources are very good; the issues are important and timely; results will be appropriately disseminated. The project is meritorious and recommended for award.
