The basic question addressed in this project is to what extent do family circumstances and events during childhood affect a child's achievements and economic status in young adulthood. On the basis of economic and sociological theory, and preliminary evidence the following childhood circumstances and events are analyzed: (1) The economic resources of the family which include income levels, the source of income (whether earned or welfare transfers), the nature of housing tenure, and the amount of time parents spent with the child; (2) Stressful events in life such as divorce, separation, death, remarriage, and geographical changes in residence; (3) Neighborhood characteristics like the local poverty rate, unemployment, and welfare dependency; (4) Educational attainment in terms of years of schooling; (5) Economic productivity measured in terms of wage rates and earnings in post-school full time employment; and (6) Teenage pregnancy and welfare dependency for young adult women. The purpose of this research is to develop models characterizing the relationship between --family economic resources, family stress, and neighborhood characteristics when a child-- and economics success when adult; and then to estimate these models. The models will be drawn from both the economic and sociological literature, and the estimation will employ a data set consisting of 21 years of longitudinal data on 1800 children aged 0-6 in 1968 and their siblings. The determinants of economic success will be estimated by fitting statistical models to the data, moving from the most straightforward regression estimates to models designed to both capture the sequential nature of individual decisions and account for inherent limitations of the data.
