This is a proposal to study why some urban neighborhoods become overwhelmingly poor and black. The study will use census tract data to describe changes in neighborhoods between 1970 and 1980. In attempting to explain such changes, the investigators will consider first Wilson's so called mismatch hypothesis, which sees economic restructuring as the basic reason for the concentration of poverty in urban areas. An alternative explanation is provided by the out-migration hypothesis which sees the outmigration of the black middle class from the inner city ghetto as the primary reason for the changing composition of many urban neighborhoods. The resulting geographic concentration of low-skilled, lower class families and individuals then gives rise to emergent properties of neighborhoods that may exacerbate social problems, such as deteriorated housing, social isolation, joblessness, and female-headed families. The study will employ a unique data set constructed by the Urban Institute. Census tract data from 1970 and 1980 are matched with geographical coordinates and additional SMSA-level characteristics. The investigators will add further information about metropolitan areas as well as longitude and latitude coordinates for each tract. The resulting data file will be a national multi-level data base with information on all census tracts, their geographic position, and the characteristics of the metropolitan area in which they are located. The analysis of neighborhood change will be done using first difference equation models with variables specified at two levels, the tract level and the metropolitan area level. This study will shed new light on the problem of concentrated urban poverty in the United States. The study will go a long way towards resolving the arguments both among social scientists and among policy makers about the causes of the spatial concentration of poverty that was observed during the 1970s.
