This research project has two central objectives. The first is to observe, measure, and summarize the degree of change and continuity of a number of the key attributes of the global political system from the Congress of Vienna (1816) to the present day. The second is to ascertain the extent to which the postulated mix of change and continuity is associated with fluctuations in the incidence of international war. More specifically, is war more frequent or severe prior to, during, or after periods of appreciable system change? There are several schools of thought, none solidly substantiated by the evidence, but on the basis of some tentative findings, historical recall, and deductive reasoning, the working hypothesis in this study is that war tends to peak toward the close of periods of relative stability in the system's basic configurations, but produces in its wake a rapid and dramatic set of changes in the system. To assess this, the major attributes of the political system (structural, cultural, and material) will be specified, measured, and analyzed for direction and magnitude of change, singly and in combination. The frequency and severity of international war will also be measured over time in an effort to ascertain the extent to which war increases after periods of system constancy/rigidity and thus precedes and helps account for major system change, Thus, war, is seen largely as a precursor and catalyst of system change rather than a consequence of such change. This research continues the Correlates of War project begun by the Principal Investigator which examines the incidence of war from 1816 to the present.
