9320504 Barro This research will focus on the key economic issue of the determinants of long-run economic growth. The work will include theoretical models, empirical estimation and testing of theories, and the construction and distribution of related data sets. One data set contains panel data for 138 countries over the period 1960 to 1990. A major element of this set is information on educational attainment by level and sex. Other variables cover national accounts, demographics, political variables, government activities, and foreign trade. Another data set will include figures on income and migration across the U.S. states and for regions of the major European countries, Japan, and Canada. Preliminary results on the growth rate of real per- capita Gross Domestic Product for about 100 countries from 1960 to 1985 reveal a "conditional convergence" effect: countries that begin with low per-capita GDP tend to grow faster if one holds constant measures of initial human capital (in the forms of education and health). Government policies are shown to influence a country's long-run position. The results indicate that growth is enhanced by better human capital, reduced market distortions, a greater degree of political stability, and smaller government spending in nonproductive areas. The propensity to invest is also positively related to growth, but it appears that much of this relationship reflects the reverse impact of growth on investment, rather than vice versa. This empirical work will be continued and additional research will be carried out on regional data and on the long-period information that is available for about 30 countries.
