Abstract The PI seeks to test his theory of "probabilistic mental models" (PMMs). The model itself states that people use probabilistic cue relationships in the natural environment to draw inferences about unknown cues. There are three main areas to which this model will be applied: the hindsight bias, overconfidence, and the Hume-Hartley Effect. The latter is manifested in an increase in a statement's apparent validity as it is repeated. In addition, the PI proposes to develop computer simulations to test some of the implications of the model. ! ! ! F 1 1 ( Times New Roman Symbol & Arial m m m " h % % D abstract of gigerenzer proposal Hal Arkes Hal Arkes
